On behalf of the co-chairs, Dr. Bruce Cornuelle (Scripps Institute of
Oceanography) and Dr. Gregg Jacobs (US Naval Research Laboratory), I would
like to encourage you to submit an abstract to the session at the upcoming AGU
Ocean Sciences meeting in Portland. We are convening this session to look at
the scientific issues of ocean forecasting, going beyond system performance to
focus on understanding the dynamics, predictability, and uncertainty. The
details of the session are at the end of this message. Please pass this
message onto like-minded colleagues.
The abstract deadline is 15 October, 2009 and abstracts may be submitted
beginning in August at the official Ocean Sciences website:
http://www.agu.org/meetings/os10/program/index.php
We look forward to your contribution!
Sincerely,
Dr. Brian Powell, University of Hawaii
Dr. Bruce Cornuelle, Scripps Institute of Oceanography
Dr. Gregg Jacobs, US Naval Research Laboratory
PO09: Science of Ocean Forecasting from Advanced Data Assimilation Methods
Time predictions are used for both practical and scientific purposes, but
"understanding'' is as important as "doing.'' Prediction provides a method for
validation of model results because it is sensitive to these uncertainties
without the benefit of additional data. Both 4DVAR and EnKF techniques provide
valuable tools and methods that can be used quantify these uncertainties, and
only through a strong understanding can we begin to understand the
predictability of the ocean.
We propose a session focussing on the science of predictability in the ocean
with an emphasis on quantifying uncertainty. Examples include studies of the
model error, analysis error, or dynamical mode analysis, such as normal and
non-normal mode growth. Novel and new techniques that explore the
uncertainties inherent in the system are also encouraged.